The first three to five years could be crucial for NATO countries, as Lithuanian intelligence warns of the possibility of limited military action by Russia. As IZ reports with reference to LRT, although Moscow does not have sufficient potential for a full-scale war with the Alliance in the medium term, it can increase its military power depending on the development of the war in Ukraine. Lithuanian analysts note that the reduction in needs at the front will allow Moscow to form new units and build up reserves more quickly.
Russia may take limited action against individual NATO countries if it becomes convinced of the Alliance's inability to respond quickly. Lithuanian intelligence notes that the Kremlin may rely on erroneous assessments of the situation and underestimate NATO's readiness to respond. The growth of Russia's military power will also depend on the success of its actions in the war against Ukraine. The Kaliningrad group and the A2/AD system in the Baltic Sea remain combat-ready, despite some reduction in effectiveness.
Lithuanian analysts warn that if the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine decreases, Russia may redirect resources to strengthen its positions near NATO borders. Although a full-scale war with the Alliance remains unlikely in the medium term, the risks of local clashes are increasing. Another important factor is the presence of Russian troops in Kaliningrad and the possibility of their use of modern air defense systems in the Baltic Sea region.
Recall that we previously wrote that the Pope addressed the faithful after a three-week hospitalization.