The Ukrainian army managed to stabilize the front, and this is one of the main achievements remaining They are important. Nowadays, the latest analysts seem to talk about the threat of the Russian abyss, and diplomats talk about the fact that the result of the war may emerge this spring.
More details about the situation at the front, priorities, problem areas, and about those deposits time success Ukrainian defense, – from the material of RBC-Ukraine.
During the preparation of the material, the following sources were used: analysis of the Institute of War (ISW) and the Ukrainian project DeepState, Telegram channel of the head commander of the ZSU Oleksandr and Sirsky, statements by the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell, comments from experts Vladislav Seleznyov and Oleksiy Getman.
Zmіst
- Sirsky's daily order: rotation on the front line, drones and REB – on the foreground
- What is expected on front and where there may be “pain points”
- The shortage of shells creates risks. What is the threat to the Russian strait
- Is the result of the war expected to flow in this spring? What to watch for in the coming months
- How will the raid of RDK and the company end and transfer the Russian army to Bilgorod
Sirsky's daily order: rotation on the front line, drones and REB – on the front line
The situation at the front is complex, but not under control. And it is clearly stable, as we all know, since the Ukrainian troops had to leave Avdiivka under the pressure of the occupiers, who also wanted a few forces to leave the place. This year, ZSU chief commander Oleksandr Sirskiy has been working on the front line again.
“The operational situation on the convergent front is no longer complex… At the same time, apparently, due to the high level of expenses, the enemy’s activity on other parts of the front has noticeably decreased,” he said.
For In other words, there has been a constant rotation of parts that have lost their usefulness. He also says that the government has started the process of replacing fighters on the front line. Participation in intense combat brings both physical and moral exhaustion. And on the first line, with your head you can assess the situation with your own eyes, and not from the testimony of your commanders.
Military expert, ZSU reserve major Oleksiy Hetman appreciates that rotation may arise from delays, as there are many who have been on the front line for two years, or even more.
“The story is not about those that the fighters are tired and require a repair, but about the awakening and, as a result, about the impossibility of ending the battle. I think that it would have been necessary to do this a little earlier, then the loss of life would have grown at the front it was beautiful. “It's positive, because new forces fight better, newer people. They don't value the need to date as much as to renew themselves,” said a commentator from RBC-Ukraine.
Another message from Sirsky owing to the nature of combat actions. The infection of the stench is being carried out due to the massive deployment of drones of all types in the fire of artillery and mortars. In his words, UAVs will become the main strike force of the ground forces.
“In these minds, the reliable protection of our military servicemen can ensure the urgent and critical functions of electronic warfare, the role and importance of which is steadily growing. The presence of drones and electronic warfare has come to the fore, and only those who can to be able to defeat the enemy, you have a chance I can help you,” he said with his head.
Of course, attack drones do not completely replace artillery, but can often fill their niche, explains Getman. And here is an important point: through a circular orientation, in order to guarantee hitting the target, you need to shoot 5 shots from harm. The situation with the UAV is dire, the fragments behind the statistics from two of them will definitely be taken where needed. On the other hand, speaking about FPV, drones do not fly into the landing zone, because there are RSZV and long-range harmonics.
“The Syrian Mav is respectful of the need to focus on the generation of drones at a sufficient number, as well as the capabilities of the REB, so as not to allow active warfare drones. This does not mean that only the drones matter the progress of the combatants Diy. After all, the coming wars will already be more important than the wars of drones, and we and our partners have played their important role. Not least those who fly, but also those who themselves swim and ride. look at these wars, avoid lust, It will be difficult to replace aircraft, artillery and missiles,” the expert added.
What is happening at the front and where there may be “pain points”
The defense forces are successfully repelling attacks near the Kup'yansky bil of Sinkivka and Pershotravnevoy, and more recently, directly from the Liman, the enemy reports great efforts to push through the bil of Yampolivka and Terniv. Near Bakhmut, the Ukrainian troops managed to push back the enemy near Bohdanivka and fought for Ivanivska and in the area of Klishchivka.
In the Avdiivka section, the Russians strengthened the pressure on Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonenka, gathering fresh forces. Near the Mar'inka area, they attack Georgiyivka and try to expand their successes from Novomikhaylivtsa, regardless of the costs. On Berdyansky, there are direct attempts to get through to Shevchenko, Priyutny and Novodonetsky. Today, near the Zaporizhzhya region, the enemy attacks Robotin. Together with the DeepState visors, the enemy concentrates the main forces directly on Pokrovska and Kurakhovoy.
It was more difficult for Russians to advance towards Avdiivka. In the area of Berdychi and Semenivka, the stench reached the first line of natural disturbances. In order to collapse further, it is necessary to dam the cascade with water from the flowing river Durna. Ukrainian forces are actively respecting this, including from the far bank, which is the most important.
Orlivka and Tonenka are located on the lower “Avdiivsky birch”. Battles have been waged for them, but, most importantly, the main task is to try to keep the occupiers as busy as possible in order to prepare for defense on new frontiers, where it is possible to build fortifications. The enemy, on his side, throws fresh reserves into the battle and bombards the forward positions with CABs.
As The New York Times writes, the Russian pace is decreasing, which means they have to advance under the fire of the ZSU from the heights of the lord. In addition, there are signs of the fact that for several months they stormed Avdiivka. The top riverman of the ZSU General Staff, Colonel Vladislav Seleznyov, is not so optimistic in his assessments.
“In the Tonenkoy district, for example, the situation is extremely complicated, a crisis zone. In the Berdych district, too. How can we manage to catch them in the Orlivka district, no living soul can tell. Because the enemy still has resources, and our positions are subject to cunning. the burning hour I have become aware of what we are losing
In addition to other problematic plots, the area is gaining respect today near Mar'inka, Pobeda and Novomikhaylivka. Here it is important to conduct defensive battles, the occupiers concentrated their forces in an attempt to cut the Vugledar ledge. There is no calm and peaceful plot at the front.
“The gate is on the Kup'yansky straight, they are preparing to attack on Limansky, the singing dynamics are in the area of Robotiny. The rest of the time there are not a lot of new things from the left bank of Kherson skoi region, and I am not ready to say what we are losing
According to Hetman, many points on the front can be attacked with pain, and even positions have to be defended from an enemy that is superior both in numbers and in technology. It doesn't matter how many kilometers left-handed, right-handed, forward or backward the terrain is. on the map and a small new line under the line. Panic heights are occupied, work so that the water crossings respect the enemy, so that it is as inhumane as possible,” adding Vin.
The shortage of shells creates risks. This is a threat to the Russian strait
Analysts at the Institute of Warfare (ISW) are ahead: due to the shortage of ammunition, the Ukrainian defense may crumble, regardless of those who will lose their composure to Russia’s offensive. Once the focus is on the plots, where the enemy is more intense, it creates a spillover in other places. What kind of occupiers can be used for the rapeseed water.
“The preservation of Russia's initiative in the entire theater of military operations increases the risk of such a development, allowing the Russian military command to practically, at its own discretion, increase and speed up operations in any country. stage on the front line,” write stench.
ISW also showed respect in an interview with unnamed Ukrainian commanders of Der Spiegel. The smell, let's face it, is about saving shells and equipment, as well as about those who have developed the current position “until the Russians hit with full force.” General Sirsky spoke about a possible threat to the abyss, without specifying where he would go.
“Having worked with two brigades, the situation is gradually becoming more complicated and there is a threat of hostile fighters slipping into the depths of our battle formations. After a detailed analysis… all necessary decisions were taken (for the defense of an unnamed area ntsi, – ed.)”, – telling him on Wednesday.
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ISW arrive before the reconstitution, so that Ukrainian forces can give priority to the distribution of ammunition in these directions, while Russia conducts larger operations. Until Volodya initiates the initiative, the commanders themselves determine the location and often the scale of offensive actions. Therefore, any activation in the previously “non-priority areas” could lead to a liquid spill.
Vladislav Seleznyov agrees with this part that the lack of shells creates the risk of loss of territory.
< p dir="ltr">“How can such risks be scaled up to the level of a breakthrough of several tens of kilometers? Perhaps, no. The enemy is already wasting resources and incurring waste. I think, better than everything, the Russians can still have great successes, but not tactfully my equals, “With the passage of several hundred meters, perhaps, for several kilometers, it is unlikely that we can clearly talk about the situation at the front, as, for example, it was in the spring of 2022, when we called the Kharkiv region,” he said.
In addition, one should not believe in the possibility of rapt infiltration from direct sources. In other words, both sides of the war have to conduct fairly effective reconnaissance.
“This means that planning large-scale rapt operations is now physically impossible. Be it a collapse of both the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the enemy “The army will be marked behind,” the expert added.
Will the result of the war be determined in the future? Why check for the coming months
For days, an alarming forecast has appeared from the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell. After the war in Washington, Washington declared that it was no longer possible to help Ukraine, as “the result of the war will remain in the air.” I called on US legislators to quickly unblock the package of 60 billion dollars.
“We can speed up. We can increase our support in order to work more and faster. That is why we are increasing our ( The European Union, – ed.) has the potential for industrial defense. And this is also true for the United States… The coming months will be great,” he said.
In his words, many analysts are looking at the great Russian offensive of this summer, and Ukraine cannot count on the election results in the United States. But Russia’s preparations have no secret until they are still active. Oleksiy Hetman remembers that President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently avoided the attack of grass on the cob of worms. And, of course, it means that if the result of the war itself is determined, there will be military forces, not diplomats.
“Russians have not adopted plans to mobilize a large number of people. They will soon end up with the title of “young fighter course” for another 100 thousand people who will inevitably be involved. It was predicted that this would be the case here. kovі laths, and we need to get ready do everything to avoid the possibility of achieving success at the front,” he said.
Ukraine urgently needs the help of partners. Because a large-scale war is raging in the third river, the time has come to realize that one thing cannot satisfy all nutrition, explains the expert.
“We need stronger defense fortifications, power what is industry, its own mobilization, donate and so that all the people in the middle of the country work for victory. We literally need everything, this is a comprehensive diet. If there is more crops, it will be easier to fly in. If there is more fortification, even if there is fortification without crops “don’t lie about anything,” said Vin.< /p>
At the outset, ZMI analyzed the problems of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023, the offensive support, the dynamics at the front and those, all of which are related to the 2024 campaign. Zagalny's plan came down to the fact that Ukraine was ready to go on the defensive in order to prepare forces until the onset of 2025. RBC-Ukraine experts previously agreed that this river is a river of defense, and not of active offensive actions on our side. Last year, the commander of the Ground Forces ZSU Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated that Ukraine is planning counterattacks, but everything is invested in the logic of strategic defense.
Ukraine is unlikely to reach 2024, since there have been no adequate supplies of electricity for several months. And we hope that in the near future the allies will begin to help more actively, with all their efforts and efforts will be devoted to defense and the preparation of reserves.
“The key element in today's times is the fortification of various elements from natural-geographical minds to the last fields. What will our strategic defense be like? “We have a lot of robots ahead,” says Vladislav Seleznyov.
How will the raid of RDK and the company end and transfer Russia to
This year will also be marked by a raid on Russian territory, which will claim the fourth bounty. Fighting is taking place near the border zone in the area of Shebekino, Nekhotiyevka and near the Grayvoronsky district of the Belgorod region, as well as in the Tyotkin Kursk region. “Russian Volunteer Corps”, “Siberian Battalion”, Legion “Freedom of Russia” and, incredibly, other leaders step forward, calling on the local population before evacuation and announcing large-scale attacks on them skovyh objects. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation fantasizes about the landing of Ukrainian troops and “small” large expenses, almost assigned to the partisans.
Today, Belgorod was under heavy shelling, there was a fire in the area, and they were forced into emergency shelters; a lot of cars were also destroyed. Eyewitnesses look at photos of the descendants of the tides. Schools, churches, museums and shopping centers are closed in the area. Due to the current anxiety, the selected farmer's workers began to work. It is significant that, having broken the cordon, the so-called presidential elections in Russia will begin.
Due to the shelling, the schools were transferred from the middle to a remote location in the Kursk region. Lilacs sound from time to time near Kursk itself. As Russian oppositionists write, they don’t care about those who are reporting on the defeat of “saboteurs”; life in both regions is virtually paralyzed.
Sami volunteers are called this interconnected military operation. I would like, in Seleznyov’s opinion, to speak more literally about the information-power operation.
“For all intents and purposes, all the activities of opposition-aligned bastards, including Russian citizens, will be completed after Putin’s “elections.” Their mission is to increase respect for the Putin regime. Although the resources are immutable, Russians have a wealth of special equipment, technology, etc. aviation component. To restore respect, they are actually taking action from the ground in populated areas to protect volunteers,” he said.
He also predicts that the partisans will not be able to stay in the border zone for long and return to Ukraine in a few days. It is a matter of fact that we can, having broken through the cordon of the occupiers, withdraw part of the army from the front and transfer it to Belgorod, then this option is disabled.
“According to various estimates, from 23,000 to 27,000 Russians skogo military located on the territory of the Kursk and Belgorod regions. These resources are sufficient to prevent the RDK corrals from developing tactical success,” the expert added.
Also, there is still no sign that Russia has gathered forces to the cordon of the Kharkov region. The head of the OVA, Oleg Sinegubov, said about this for days. Tim the enemy has been increasing the frequency of attacks on our border regions. In addition, in the Sumy region, 800 vibukhs were lulled in two days, according to the words of the head of the local police department, Volodymyr Artyukh, which is “a normal norm.”
Previous Russians also hit radio-technical facilities, get along well transmissions in Sumy, Shostsi, Bilopillia and Trostyantsi, as a result of which there were problems with television, radio signals and mobile communications. The television infrastructure of the Kharkiv region was also attacked.
According to Seleznyov, such attacks are “an unsafe alarm.”
“The connection is The nerve of not only the army, but of communication has burned. Once the connection has been lost, the Internet, the radio of the television signal will begin to scream, the remains of the existence in the information vacuum are not allowed to be quickly accepted. “implement the song of the decision,” he summed up.
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