• 28/05/2024 19:56

The NBU explained the reasons for the slowdown in inflation in the spring, updating its annual forecast

ByJohn Newman

Apr 12, 2024

Last month, the consumer inflation index in annual terms (y/y) slowed to 3.2 percent, that is, stopping at a rate lower than previously predicted by the bank regulator (5 percent).

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The NBU explained the reasons for the slowdown in inflation in the spring, updating the annual forecast

Photo – newsler.info

The fact that such a deviation from the forecast was ensured by the dynamics of components that have unpredictable properties, for example, the cost of raw food, writes NBN, citing the official page of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

According to NBU analysts, the acceleration in the price reduction of raw products (vegetables/fruits) is directly provoked by seasonal factors, the influence of which, apparently, will wear off by the second half of 2024. In particular, we are talking about the effects of significant volumes of last year’s harvests and the mild winter period this year, including the consequences of the “transport crisis” at the western borders – restrictions on the export of agricultural products affected the growth in the dynamics of supply of certain food products in the region. ;the domestic market of the country.

Also, the price of motor fuel rose somewhat more slowly than expected, both due to a more moderate increase in the global cost of oil and because of the warm winter, which determined a reduced need for the purchase of energy resources.

However, the key inflationary pressure, which is reflected in the current monetary model of the NBU, weakened much more moderately and was close to the forecast of the bank-regulator—the core inflation rate in March “slowed down” only to 4.2 percent y/y.

We previously wrote about in which banks Ukrainians prefer to open deposits.

nbnews.com.ua

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