The Social Security Administration is set to announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment on Wednesday, Oct. 14, and the leading forecasts point to a raise of about 3.5% to 3.6%. In Maryland, where more than 1.1 million people collect Social Security, that would mean roughly $80 more a month for a typical retired worker starting in January, before any change in Medicare premiums.
Searches for the announcement jumped on Sunday as retirees looked for the date and the likely number. Here is what is known, what is still an estimate and how the raise could play out in Baltimore and the surrounding counties.
When will the 2027 Social Security COLA be announced?
The COLA is tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The agency compares the average of July, August and September readings with the same months a year earlier. The final piece, September’s inflation report, is scheduled for release on the morning of Oct. 14, and the Social Security Administration typically announces the new COLA shortly after, according to The Senior Citizens League and The Motley Fool.
The agency’s headquarters sits in Woodlawn, just outside Baltimore City in Baltimore County, so the number that lands in mailboxes nationwide is set a few miles from the Beltway.
How big will the 2027 raise be?
No one will know the official figure until Wednesday. The most-cited forecasts are close together:
- The Senior Citizens League: 3.5%, its final estimate, released Sept. 11 and down from 3.6% a month earlier.
- AARP: 3.6%, according to Kiplinger.
- Kiplinger staff economist David Payne: 3.6%.
Either number would be larger than the 2.8% COLA beneficiaries received for 2026 and the 2.5% raise for 2025. The CPI-W ran 3.4% above a year earlier in July and 3.5% in August, according to TSCL. Payne has pointed to energy costs as a driver.
“high energy prices bleed into other categories”
David Payne, Kiplinger staff economist, via Kiplinger
What would a 3.5% COLA mean in Maryland?
As of December 2025, 1,133,360 Marylanders received Social Security benefits, including 892,917 retired workers and 102,841 disabled workers, according to the agency’s state statistics. Another 115,521 Marylanders received Supplemental Security Income, which gets the same percentage increase.
By our calculation from those figures, Maryland retired workers averaged about $2,258 a month at the end of 2025. A 3.5% COLA would add about $79 a month to that average, and 3.6% would add about $81. Statewide, Social Security paid out about $2.39 billion a month in December 2025, so a 3.5% increase would add roughly $84 million a month, or about $1 billion a year, to household budgets in the state.
Benefits vary widely by county. The table below uses the agency’s most recent county data, from December 2024, so actual 2026 checks are somewhat higher after this year’s 2.8% raise.
| Area | Beneficiaries | Average monthly benefit (Dec. 2024) | Approx. gain at 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore County | 165,720 | $2,043 | $72 |
| Montgomery County | 162,700 | $2,218 | $78 |
| Prince George’s County | 136,785 | $1,866 | $65 |
| Anne Arundel County | 102,000 | $2,111 | $74 |
| Baltimore City | 99,310 | $1,672 | $59 |
| Harford County | 53,520 | $2,040 | $71 |
| Howard County | 49,345 | $2,241 | $78 |
| Carroll County | 35,820 | $2,080 | $73 |
Because the COLA is a percentage, beneficiaries with smaller checks get smaller dollar increases. Baltimore City has the lowest average benefit of the jurisdictions in the table, so its typical gain is the smallest.
When will Maryland beneficiaries see the higher payments?
The raise takes effect with benefits for December 2026, which are paid in January 2027. Most beneficiaries are paid on a Wednesday based on their birth date, so the first larger payments would arrive Jan. 13, Jan. 20 or Jan. 27, 2027, according to The Motley Fool’s breakdown of the calendar:
- Born on the 1st through 10th: Jan. 13, 2027
- Born on the 11th through 20th: Jan. 20, 2027
- Born on the 21st through 31st: Jan. 27, 2027
- SSI recipients and people who started benefits before May 1997: Dec. 31, 2026, because Jan. 1 is a holiday and Jan. 3 falls on a Sunday
The agency mails personalized COLA notices in early December, and the same letter is available in a my Social Security account. Beneficiaries do not need to apply for the raise.
Will Medicare premiums eat into the increase?
For many retirees, yes, at least partly. Most people 65 and older have Medicare Part B premiums deducted directly from their Social Security payments. The standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026, and the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projected $209.50 for 2027, according to Kiplinger. The official 2027 premium is usually announced in November.
If that projection holds, the premium increase of about $6.60 a month would come out of the COLA for people who pay Part B through their Social Security check. Marylanders who recently saw an unusual extra deposit tied to Medicare can read our explainer on the $90 Social Security deposit.
Does Maryland tax Social Security benefits?
No. Maryland is among the states that do not tax Social Security benefits, so the COLA will not raise a retiree’s state income tax bill. Federal tax can still apply to part of benefits for people with higher combined incomes.
What should Maryland retirees do before Oct. 14?
- Treat the 3.5% to 3.6% figures as forecasts. September’s inflation data can still move the final number.
- Log in to my Social Security to confirm your mailing address and direct deposit details so the December notice reaches you.
- If you budget month to month, plan around your net increase after Medicare Part B, not the headline percentage.
- Be wary of calls, texts or emails claiming you must “activate” or “apply for” the COLA. The increase is automatic, and the agency says it will not demand payment or threaten you over the phone.
Featured image: Social Security Administration headquarters in Woodlawn, Baltimore County. Photo: Coolcaesar / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.