Gold futures could rise in price to $3,200 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid increased demand for safe haven assets, according to analysts at Swiss bank UBS.
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Bankers' forecast
The previous forecast called for prices to rise to $3,000 per ounce, but futures surpassed this mark last week.
The escalation of trade tensions highlights the precious metal's role as a safe haven asset, according to UBS analysts Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo, who say additional demand for gold will fuel fears of a U.S. recession.
“We continue to believe that holding around 5% gold in an investment portfolio would be optimal from a long-term diversification perspective,” they wrote.
DoubleLine Capital founder and chief investment officer Jeffrey Gundlach has set an even more bullish price target for gold: $4,000 per ounce.
“Gold is continuing the rally we've been talking about for a couple of years,” said the investor dubbed the “bond king.” “I'm going to make a bold call and say gold will get to $4,000.”
Gundlach added that he was not sure that would happen this year, but noted that central bank gold purchases have been growing “on a very, very steep trajectory” and that is unlikely to change anytime soon.
In his opinion, the probability of a recession in the American economy this year is about 60%.
April gold futures were little changed Monday afternoon at $3,002.80 an ounce. Gold has gained 12.7% year-to-date.
As MarketWatch notes, in January 1980 — at the height of a period of particularly high inflation in the United States, exceeding 14% — gold prices reached $873 per ounce. Adjusted for inflation, that's about $3,580 per ounce in today's money, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
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