External partners in various formats help Ukraine cope with large-scale Russia what an intruder. This includes coordinating supplies and sanctions policy.
For more details about the decisions of the contact group with the unofficial name “Ramstein” and sanctions against the Russian Federation, see the material from RBC-Ukraine.
When preparing the material, the following were used: data from Wikipedia, publications ArmyINFORM, Facebook of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Telegram of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, information from EU sites, US Department of the Treasury, Department in the UK, an analysis of the influx of recent sanctions from the Kiev School of Economics (KSE).
Zmist
- Cob “Ramstein”: transition to NATO and major announcements for 2022
- Yakisne growth. Patriot, attack tanks, F-16 coalition and ATACMS missiles
- First River sanctions. Freezing of reserves, a blow to nafta and gold, Putin and the company are on the list
- Extended sanctions. Only three packages for 2023 and will be gone before the upcoming
- Effect of sanctions. How the exchange affected the Russian economy
Cob “Ramstein”: the transition to a defunct NATO and major announcements for 2022
A contact group for the defense of Ukraine appeared in response to the Russian invasion. Within this framework, liaisons are created to synchronize military assistance. The group adopted the informal name “Ramstein” – after the name of the US Air Force base in the German town of Ramstein-Miesenbach, where the first meeting took place.
Photo: main announcements of the meeting at the Ramstein format ( Infographics from RBC-Ukraine)
The beginning of the conversation was laid on the 26th quarter of 2022, on which allies were discussing how and how they themselves could help Ukraine. At the same time, the principle of “assistance to all those in need” was formulated, over 30 countries announced that at the first stage they would see a cost of over 5 billion dollars, and Germany announced their readiness to supply Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.
After another “Ramstein”, Denmark announced the delivery of Harpoon anti-ship missiles and launchers, the Czech Republic – about tanks and attack helicopters. Italy, Greece, Norway and Poland – about artillery systems and shells in calibers that were in the newly formed Ukraine at that time.
The third sustrich was killed on the 15th of March during the street battles for Severodonetsk (Luhansk region). The result was a statement about Ukraine’s gradual transition to NATO, the supply of long-range multiple launch rocket systems M270, HIMARS, MARS II, Brimstone missiles, Mi-17 helicopters, M777 howitzer. Just last month, June 20, the United States voted on a package worth 400 million dollars with a thousand high-precision ammunition for artillery and 4 additional HIMARS systems. Standing on linen 30 out of 50 regional participants received a lethal strike. A lot of details were not revealed, but it became clear about plans to supply M113 armored personnel carriers.
The fifth Ramstein passed under the sign of the preparation of a strategy for the long-term support. The United States attacked howitzers, HARM anti-radar missiles, 100 HUMVEE armored vehicles, anti-personnel combat vehicles, and Excalibur precision projectiles. Norway – 160 anti-tank missiles AGM-114 Hellfire, Britain – over 120 vehicles for transporting special equipment.
Photo: Persha Zustrich “Ramastein” at the beginning of 2022 (twitter.com/SecDef)
At the sixth meeting on the 12th of June, the blow to the energy sector of Ukraine was met. In connection with this, it was first announced that the NASAMS air defense system, PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, as well as the first 6 HAWK PPO launchers were installed. Information has appeared about the possible transmission of LRU M270 – French analogues of HIMARS on crawler tracks. It became clear that Nimechina supplied the first IRIS-T software systems.
At the end of the 2022 year of the 16th leaf fall, Poland announced the supply of artillery and anti-aircraft weapons to nearby countries, Germany – about shells and missiles for MARS II systems, Spain – about the transfer of two more HAWK launchers. And before this, the United States first announced the upgrade of Avenger software systems. It is significant that the river ended on a decidedly positive note after Ukraine’s distant counterattack in the Kharkov and Kherson regions. After the meeting, the current head of the Joint Committee of the US Chief of Staff, Mark Milley, said that Russia has indulged in a strategic pardon and has already lost.
“All the invaders saw failure… Obviously, the will of the Russians before the war does not reflect the Ukrainian will to fight on the battlefield,” said Vine.
The increase is clear. Patriot, attack tanks, coalition F-16 and ATACMS missiles
At the beginning of 2023, Russia continued to indulge in massive blows, shifted the emphasis to Donbass, and stuck out to Soledar and Bakhmut. It became clear that Ukraine would need important technology. Before the landmark Ramstein-8 battle, which was actually unblocked by the supply chain, the allies announced plans to supply American Bradley fighting vehicles, German Marders, French wheeled tanks AMX-10 RC and British Challenger 2 tanks.
The meeting itself took place on the 20th. The partners first confirmed that the United States, Germany and the Netherlands will transfer Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems (which Ukraine can shoot down ballistic missiles). One of the central topics was the transfer of incoming tanks. A few days ago, US President Joe Biden said that Washington would send 31 Abrams, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed to transfer Leopard 2. Before that, the partners agreed to transfer self-propelled howitzers Caesar, AHS Krab and armored personnel carrier FV430 Mk3 Bulldog.
Behind the bags of the 9th Sustrich 14 years ago, it became clear that France and Italy are working on the SAMP-T air defense system, and Germany, Canada, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands are working on the post-war ones Leopard tanks. Details were not disclosed, Ukraine was preparing for a counter-offensive in 2023, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “not everything can be reported publicly.”
Photo: at the beginning of 2023, partners confirmed the upcoming deliveries of air defense systems Patriot (Getty Images)
A month later, on the tenth “Ramstein” there was a buzz about the further development of the PPO and the formation of an “armored fist”. Nine countries agreed to supply 150 Leopard tanks and other armored vehicles, Norway and the United States – two NASAMS systems. Slovakia announced that it was ready to transfer 10 units of MiG-29 (withdrawn from service until the fall), and Poland announced the delivery of the first 4 units of MiG-29 (the number of units was not specified).
There are 21 units left in the country. The Coalition of Tanks was formed. The partners decided to establish a Leopard service center in Poland, and the United States agreed that it could transfer more than 31 Abrams. The delivery of shells, fire, cartridges, sniper rifles from Prairie Gun Works, missiles for ATGMs and modular bridges has been delayed for quite some time.
And already on the 25th of May on “Ramstein-12” the members of the Coalition of Guilty People, both Denmark and the Netherlands, voted. It was immediately determined that Vaughn was more important than the robot from training pilots on the F-16. In addition, the United States has acquired even more NASAMS air defense systems, and Canada has acquired more than 40 AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles. Prior to this, Britain transferred a batch of surface-to-surface missiles to Storm Shadow.
“We need to secure the sky. We need everyone who joins this process to form a global coalition. We are sure to see the Fighting Falcon (F-16, – ed.) in the Ukrainian sky,” President Zelensky said.
During the 15th round, Denmark and the Netherlands promised to deliver 14 Leopard 2 tanks, while a few more are expected to arrive from Spain, and Sweden announced that Ukrainian pilots are also protesting at fault. Gripen. The United States announced ammunition for HIMARS, 10 Stryker armored personnel carriers and 15 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
On the 14th “Ramstein”, 18th line, they reported that the pilots will undergo training on the F-16 in Denmark, as well as at the base in Romania (here no earlier than the end of 2024). The group of countries voted for additional assistance of 1.5 billion euros, which included SCALP (Storm Shadow) missiles, Patriot launchers, and Leopard tanks. The USA announced the Vampire software, the kamikaze drone Phoenix Ghost and the Switchblade.
On the 19th spring, Ukraine, Estonia and Luxembourg launched an IT coalition (to create a unified digital ecosystem for combat management). The United States announced that Abrams tanks would “arrive on the battlefield”, Denmark agreed to supply 15 T-72EA tanks and 30 Leopard 1 tanks, Poland – over 100 infantry fighting vehicles. At the upcoming meeting, on the 11th, President Volodymyr Zelensky first decided to take part, and at Ramstein-16, it became clear that Denmark would transfer the F-16 to the beginning of 2024, and Belgium – to 2025. In addition, Lithuania received two more NASAMS air defense systems, and the UK received the new MSI-DS Terrahawk Paladin anti-aircraft system for combating drones. Several days later, Ukraine first stagnated with the secret transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles.
Photo: The Coalition of Vinishuvachians took shape at Ramstein, how to prepare before the transfer of the F-16 (Getty Images)
At the end of the year 2023, the squirrel race, 22 leaves fell, was formed by the Coalition of Terrestrial Works of the PPO (20 countries), the leaders are Germany and France. The German side announced a package worth 1.4 billion dollars with IRIS-T systems, missiles and one set of Patriot. Britain and Norway, within the framework of the Maritime Coalition, announced that they were looking for ways to improve security in the Black Sea. The Allies discussed how to solve the shortage of artillery shells.
The meeting on September 23, 2024 passed without the announcement of a long list of assistance packages. Protea Germany announced the delivery of six Sea King Mk41 helicopters, and Canada – about 10 more boats from Zodiac Hurricane Technologies (until the end of spring). In addition, NATO signed an agreement for 220 thousand shells, Britain announced a military package worth 2.5 billion pounds sterling, France – deliveries of 40 SCALP missiles, hundreds of bombs and over 70 Caesar artillery systems.
Extremely in today's news bullshit last year, 14 fierce. Head pouches – requested by the Coalition of Integrated Anti-Army and Missile Defense in France, the USA and Germany, the Coalition of Drones and the Coalition of Disruption. Canada will provide 44 million dollars for the purchase of spare parts, stockpiling and ammunition for the F-16. As stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirilo Budanov, the pilots will complete their work, and in the spring, the culprits may appear in the Ukrainian sky.
The first river of sanctions. Freezing of reserves, a blow to nafta and gold, Putin and the company are on the list
A new round of strengthening sanctions due to a full-scale war. The edges of the Sunset sent them away step by step and they removed the number assignments. In two years, 13 packages were ordered, the rest will symbolically be confirmed today.
The first package of all Russian nationality is called “LDNR”. On February 21, 2022, the USA, Britain, Australia, Canada and the EU began to impose sanctions against Russian banks, including those that finance the military-industrial complex. Germany has reduced the certification of Pivnichnogo Stream-2. Other exchanges were made between the sovereign government, deputies, the Central Bank and businessmen close to Volodymyr Putin – Gennady Timchenko, Boris and Igor Rotenberg.
Another package began to be introduced immediately after the invasion. This includes personal sanctions against Putin (including entry barriers and freezing of assets) and the export of technologies from oil refining. Companies from the Russian Federation were limited in terms of dollars, euros, pounds and yen. Some countries began to provide visas to the citizens of Russia, and since 25 years the United States, the European Union and others began to close the skies to Russian aviation.
Immediately after the month of February 26th, the third package was delivered. These sanctions froze the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from the banks of the Velikaya Simka region, curtailed the “golden passport” program for Russians, and included some banks in the international payment system SWIFT. London reported on the preparation of a black list of Russian riches, and the European Union defended the propaganda media of Russia Today and Sputnik.
Photo: the first packages included sanctions against Volodymyr Putin, his exile, oligarchs, banks and other sectors of the economy (Getty Images)
The fourth package, proposed in the middle of Bereznya, has expanded the lists of Russians and companies considered to be involved in aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions were aimed at preventing the export of luxury goods and new investments in the energy sector. Australia imposed restrictions on the elite and oligarchs close to Putin, and the United States and the European Union started talking about the embargo on naphtha and the blocking of payments for the sovereign borg.
Package No. 5 was voted on the 5th quarter of 2022. Zokrema, the European Union has blocked the import of coal, the entry of Russian ships into its ports, the export of quantum computers and high-tech carriers, the import of wood, porridge, alcohol and seafood. The United States has officially suspended the exchange of information with Russian tax authorities.
Significantly, the import ban on vougill affected a quarter of all Russian exports, which was an estimated loss of 8 billion euros in revenues to the river.
3 ducats The EU Rada approved the sixth package. We have transferred a phased import of crude oil and other petroleum products over a period of 6-8 months. This is a timely problem for countries that export Russian naphtha through a pipeline and lie in Russia, for example, for the Ugorshchina. The largest banks have connected to SWIFT, blocked the communication of three more TV channels and the export of chemicals.
This coming month, 21 June, within the framework of this package of sanctions, the European Union has blocked the import of Russian gold (as well as jewelry products), strengthening export control over goods of secondary importance, as well as the requirements of sanctioned growth I will reveal my assets. The measures of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin, the propaganda actors Volodymyr Mashkov and Sergiy Bezrukov were under personal disobedience, and Maria Lvova-Belova, who adopted the child deported from Mariupol, was also upheld for the rights of the child.
The eighth package was praised 6 the evening immediately after Moreover, Russia has declared Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizka and Kherson regions to be “its territory.” This includes the ban on the export of armored and military equipment, goods from the aviation sector, electronic components, and on the import of steel products, plastics, textiles, textiles, hides (amounting to approximately 7 billion euros).
In addition, the 8th package became the legislative basis for the regulation of prices for Russian naphtha. The point is that European companies could sell services from the transportation of naphtha (sea oil), since it was purchased at a price of no more than 60 dollars per barrel. The mechanism was requested from the chest, but Russia still has to bypass it behind the additional “shadow fleet” of tankers and mixing with naphtha from other countries. In addition, Russian exports were reoriented to India and China. The ban on sea imports of Russian crude oil will be imposed until the EU on April 5, 2022, and on February 5, 2023 – an embargo on the import of petroleum products. With Zagal, the barrier was expanded by 90% to oil imports from Russia to Europe. The United States was convinced of it even earlier.
Already in the winter of 2022, it became clear that Russia had found a way to circumvent other sanctions. For example, in the first few years, foreign countries supplied microchips to Intel, AMD and other companies for 777 billion dollars through “gaskets” in Turkey and Hong Kong.
Photo: maritime exports of Russian oil to Europe have slowed down due to sanctions (Getty Images)
The remaining birth in 2022 will be the ninth batch, the 16th breast will be confirmed. There was a ban on investments in the energy and mining sector of the Russian Federation, and the frozen assets of two more banks. The sanctions hit low Russian ministers and deputies, members of the families of Ramzan Kadirov and the oligarch close to Putin Yuri Kovalchuk, the so-called “government” in the occupied territories, the leaders of Russian political couples tії.
Additional exchanges have started supplying engines for drones, generators, electronic components, computer equipment, night storage devices and cameras. In 2023, the Swiss bank Credit Suisse froze the assets of sanctioned Russians by up to 20 billion dollars. By the end of 2023, only 9% of as many as 1,500 lighting companies have deprived the Russian market.
Extended sanctions. Only three packages for 2023 rіk and will be gone before the upcoming day
The tenth package of the Western countries was sent on February 25, 2023. The export of electronic components that are used in Russian armored systems (UAVs, missiles, etc.), thermal imaging cameras, vans, snowmobiles, bridges, cranes, parts for machines, industrial installations, transit of goods and advanced technologies was blocked. of great recognition. Sanctions were also proposed against as many as 100 enterprises associated with the Russian military-industrial complex, including Iranian companies, as the Shaheed say. The list of physical persons was supplemented by representatives of the Wagner Military Control Committee, for the sake of the Federation, and other institutions.
The European Commission voted on the 11th package, most importantly directing the fight against circumvention of the sanction. In addition, Norway has added over 1,500 physical and legal persons to its list, and Lithuania has announced its intention to confiscate cars with Russian registration.
Last package for the month of 18 April 2023. It protects the direct and indirect import of diamonds from Russia, the re-export of sensitive goods and technology, and expands the list of protected goods – lithium batteries, thermostats, stationary jet motors and servo motors for UAVs. Additional exchanges involved chavun, copper and aluminum ore, pipes and rolled products. They also blocked the import of bottled gas with a 12-month transition period and confirmed additional entries to ensure the continued price adjustment for naphtha.
Photo: 2023 Rotsi Sanctsi Xiagzhen (rosZMI)
For today, the 13th package of sanctions against Russia will be introduced by European partners ahead of other rivers of invasion. It is called the weakest after it became clear that there will be no new restrictions on Russian exports and imports.
The new package includes approximately 200 legal and physical entities. As stated by the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, more restrictions have been introduced against organizations involved in circumventing sanctions, as well as against the defense and military sectors. Sanctions also apply to the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children.
Effect of sanctions. How the liberalization affected the Russian economy
According to the analysis of the Kiev School of Economics (KSE), the Russian economy is experiencing stress due to war and sanctions. The outer middle became less friendly. The most important change in the macroeconomic situation in the remaining rivers was the sharp decline in the external balance. Zokrema, 2023 Rocky mugging by Ekport. Products became 423 billion Dolariv – Znizhennya by 29% Porivnano С 2022.
Tsitagato Menchito Trade Balance – 118 billion dolars (-63%) – I instanding rahunk – 50 billion dollars (-79%), which fundamentally supports macroeconomic stability. As a result of the sharp decline in the influx of foreign currencies in the fall of 2022, the ruble has lost nearly 40% of its value against the euro and the US dollar.
In January 2023, over 98% of Russian seaborne exports of crude oil were probably sold at a price of over 60 dollars per barrel. This indicates a very low price point. However, there are signs that the strengthening of sanctions in the energy sector is having an effect.
“The decline in Russian naphtha in line with Brent, which is the key mechanism for the decline in export revenues, began to increase again in the remaining months. Similar periods will be formed in the coming months “Of course, Russia’s external balance may approach a critically low level,” KSE says.< /p>
Foreign trade stabilized at a new base level of 35 billion dollars for exports and 25 billion dollars for imports for the month. Reduced exports through sanctions and reduced energy prices cost the Russian Federation approximately 14 billion dollars per month. KSE analysts believe that if price boundaries are strengthened, the influx of foreign currencies could reach a critically low level as early as 2024.
Higher world prices have led to a revision of the reduction in Russian naphtha. This allowed Russia to deduct an additional 30 billion dollars from exports in 2023, equal to the start-up scenario. It appears that prices and export revenues will return to the forecast level in the first quarter of 2024.
“According to our estimates, exports of oil and gas stock will be 228 billion dollars in 2023 and will decrease to 186 billion dollars in 2024 and 176 billion dollars in 2025… It is important to ease the pressure, leaving a difference 10 dollars per barrel reduces export revenues approximately 25-30 billion dollars per river,” is the analysis.
Stable sovereign finances allow Moscow to implement a plan for a sharp increase in government spending – which is the fate of government consumption. ir will spend 100 billion dollars (+68% until the last fate).
The aggregate assets of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) at the end of 2023 amounted to 133.4 billion dollars. Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, Russia has lost perhaps half of its liquid assets, and also drained all its foreign exchange reserves. The liquid part will lose assets in yuan and gold worth 56 billion dollars. And this is to consolidate budgetary financing through the National Welfare Fund.
Before the invasion of Russia, international reserves were small at 634 billion dollars. According to KSE estimates, approximately 298 billion dollars have been blocked through sanctions. Also, since 2022, emigration has significantly increased – up to 817-922 thousand people, due to which the economy is facing a shortage of labor force.
Trying to renovate the economy will deal with the main differences i. The Russian economy is benefiting from the massive fiscal stimulus associated with the war, which is set to become even stronger. A sharp increase in the number of taxes could add close to 2.5% to GDP growth in 2024.
“So, it is not surprising that economic activity practically resumed due to the initial shock caused by the war and sanctions. However “The main foundations of the economy are weak, and problems are too late to come to the surface,” they say from KSE.
Read terms and important information about the war between Russia and Ukraine on the RBC-Ukraine channel in Telegram.
