The supply of foreign currency in Ukraine in 2025 will lose significant value. However, the great commitment of international assistance will enable the NBU to cover the structural deficit of foreign currency in the private sector and smooth out the excessive exchange rate fluctuations.
RBC-Ukraine reports about this in its reports on the “Inflationary call” of the National Bank of Ukraine (since 2025).
As stated by the NBU, in the fourth quarter of 2024 the rate will increase in foreign currency. Among the key officials there were record high budgets. Their growth was largely financed by the provision of international financial assistance.
In addition, purchases from importers of other related goods and The obligations on business transactions permitted within the limits of currency liberalization have increased.
“In such minds, we reacted in advance to the increase in the structural deficit of currency on the side of the private sector, such as the NBU, by increasing net sales of foreign currency to 11.4 billion dollars in the fourth quarter (up from 9.2 billion dollars 3rd quarter). src=”https://baltimorechronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/cc0d3498130bacb8fa8792adfccc9af9.jpg” />As a result, the difference between ready and official rates in the fourth quarter was insignificant – close to 1%, the NBU reported.
Estimation for 2025 RUR
Account for 2025 RUR Ukraine takes away 38.4 billion dollars from foreign financing. “The guarantee of international financial assistance in 2025, the NBU's high ability to compensate for the structural shortage of foreign currency in the private sector and smooth out the supra-world exchange rate fluctuations will be saved. nadali,” the NBU said.
The stability of the foreign exchange market will be deprived of an important element of preserving the reserves of economic agents and returning inflation to a target of 5%, the NBU added.
Structural deficit
According to the NBU's assessment, By 2025, the structural deficit of foreign currency in the private sector will no longer be significant, but will gradually change. Thus, by normalizing the functioning of the economy and continuing monetary liberalization, the receipt of investment and trading capital for the private sector will increase. There will also be an increase in export earnings due to the gradual increase in world prices for grains and the rapid increase in the yield of agricultural crops.
Currency interventions
Guess what, the National Bank of Ukraine In 2024, we sold 5.3 billion dollars on the interbank foreign exchange market. This is the maximum monthly consumption in history. In 2024, the NBU sold 34.8 billion dollars to the interbank market, which is 6.2 billion dollars more than in 2023.
However, in 2024, Ukraine took 42 billion dollars from international funds additional help, which compensated for the NBU's losses.
The dollar exchange rate for 2024 RIC increased by 10.7% to 42.03 hryvnia.
