Donald Trump (Photo: Getty Images) Author: Roman Kot
In the United States, there is active talk about Donald Trump running for president for a third time after his current term ends in 2029. Although this is directly prohibited by the American Constitution.
RBC-Ukraine explains whether Trump can circumvent this ban and what the purpose of such discussions is.
Content
- Who and what is saying about Trump's new term
- Limitations of the Constitution and what to do with them
- Why are they starting to talk about a third term now?
Who and what is saying about Trump's new term
Donald Trump is currently serving his second presidential term out of two. He first became the occupant of the White House in 2017, lost to Joe Biden four years later, and returned to office only this year. Trump has repeatedly hinted at the possibility of continuing his political career after the end of his second term in January 2029. At the same time, he himself has stated that such talk is not serious. For example, on January 25, Trump expressed this thesis with a smile, saying that these are “headlines for the fake media.”
But such statements have multiplied in recent months. Trump's most recent statement on the matter was on March 31, when reporters on board Air Force One asked him if he was thinking about a third term.
“I don't want to talk about my third term now. We have a lot of time. We have almost four years left… However, despite this, many people say: “You should run.” They like the way we work. The main thing is that they like it,” the US president explained.
A number of members of Trump's team regularly make similar statements. Moreover, according to many American media outlets, Trump's team is discussing various scenarios on how to ensure that he remains in power after the end of his second term.
Limitations of the Constitution and what to do with them
The 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution clearly states that no person can be elected president for more than two terms. Therefore, the ban on a third term can be removed by repealing or amending the 22nd Amendment, by introducing a new amendment to the Constitution.
The two-term limit was previously informal. But it was only formalized in 1951, after President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had been elected four times. Despite his popularity and leadership during World War II, American lawmakers decided it was best to avoid such cases in the future.
To repeal the restriction, a new amendment—in place of the 22nd—would need to be proposed either by a two-thirds vote in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, or through a special constitutional convention called at the initiative of two-thirds of the states (but this option has never been used).
After that, the amendment must be ratified by three-quarters of the states (38 out of 50), either through their legislatures or through special conventions in the states. However, the political division in the US and the significant proportion of Trump opponents in Congress make such a scenario de facto impossible.
A number of American lawyers also suggest the possibility of a tricky legal combination. Trump could be elected vice president in 2028, and then become president in the event of the resignation or death of the current president. This means that, for example, the current vice president, J.D. Vance, would become a presidential candidate in the next election – and after winning, he would voluntarily resign his mandate and hand it over to Trump. However, this scenario is blocked by the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution: “No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice President of the United States.”
At worst, if Trump tried to simply ignore the 22nd Amendment and run, it would lead to a court challenge. The U.S. Supreme Court, which has the final say on constitutional matters, could rule it unconstitutional. On the other hand, the Supreme Court is currently majority-conservative justices appointed by Trump during his first term.
One of the popular theories in the American media says that Trump may not run himself, but establish control over the White House through a loyal successor, effectively bypassing the 22nd Amendment informally. A similar strategy is compared to the actions of Vladimir Putin in Russia in 2008-2012, when the Russian dictator became prime minister for 4 years and “appointed” Dmitry Medvedev to the post of president, while retaining actual power in his hands.
There are also some downright fantastic versions in the conservative American media about Trump remaining in power after the end of his second term: canceling the elections or declaring a state of emergency, mobilizing “Republican” states to put pressure on the federal system, or rethinking the term “election” in order to circumvent that very 22nd Amendment.
Why are they starting to talk about a third term now?
In any case, Trump is now only at the beginning of his second term. Over time, his rating may drop and there will be no point in running for a third presidency in principle. In addition, Trump's political rivals from the Democratic Party say that if the two-term limit is lifted, they plan to nominate a strong candidate. In particular, former President Barack Obama is mentioned in this context. Like Trump, he was elected President of the United States twice and currently maintains relative popularity.
There are several versions of why the discourse about a third term has intensified. Trump's team may indeed be “dizzy with success.” And the current media campaign is, in that case, a test of public opinion.
There is also a more “down-to-earth” version – distraction. During March, the White House was rocked by the massive Signalgate scandal. In addition, there is nothing to be particularly proud of in terms of ending Russia's war against Ukraine. Therefore, supporters of this version associate the statements about Trump's third term with an attempt to distract Americans.
Whatever the reasons, for now such talk is playing a destructive role, increasing the split in the US. Trump is a very controversial figure, and in the US there are enough of his irreconcilable opponents, as well as ardent supporters. And with each new statement on the topic of a third term, the tension between them is growing.
When writing this material, statements by American politicians, publications from The New York Times, The Hill, Breitbart News, Axios, Reuters, and New York Post were used.