The United States is on track to close 2025 with the most significant one-year decline in homicides ever documented, according to preliminary data, report Baltimore Chronicle via AH Datalytics. Despite the year opening with a deadly New Year’s Day car-ramming attack in New Orleans and concluding with multiple mass shootings, including one at Brown University, the overall trend points to a dramatic reduction in violent crime across the country. This assessment is based on preliminary crime statistics compiled from 550 law enforcement agencies nationwide.
Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst, co-founder of AH Datalytics and former CIA and New Orleans Police Department analyst, told ABC News that 2025 is likely to see approximately a 20% drop in homicides nationwide. Even taking a more conservative estimate of a 16–17% decrease, it would still represent the largest annual reduction in U.S. history. Experts note that crime rates appear to have returned to pre-pandemic levels following surges in previous years.
The decline surpasses the 15% drop recorded in 2024, which at the time was considered the largest decrease on record. Homicide rates fell by 13% in 2023 and 6% in 2022, according to FBI data. If current trends hold, the total number of homicides this year could be the lowest since the FBI began maintaining these records in 1960. The Real-Time Crime Index, founded by Asher and drawing on monthly crime data from 550 agencies, serves as the basis for this analysis.
Several major cities are expected to experience the most significant decreases. Preliminary figures indicate that Detroit, Philadelphia, and Baltimore are on track to report their fewest murders since the 1960s. In New Orleans, despite the January 1 terrorist attack, the city is projected to record the lowest homicide count since 1970. San Francisco is poised to see the fewest homicides since 1940. Chicago, for example, has experienced a 30% reduction in homicides compared to 2024, and a 49% decline since 2021, when nearly 800 murders were recorded.
Beyond homicides, other crime categories are also showing notable declines. Asher noted that aggravated assaults nationwide are down 8%, while motor vehicle theft has dropped 23% in 2025, continuing a trend observed in 2024.
Despite the overall decline, violent crime remains a pressing concern for families directly affected. Tamara Tarpinian-Jachym, whose 21-year-old son, Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, was killed in a shooting on June 30 in Washington, D.C., expressed that statistics cannot capture the personal loss suffered by victims’ families. Three teenagers have been charged with her son’s murder and are being prosecuted as adults in federal court. All have pleaded not guilty.
Tarpinian-Jachym supported President Donald Trump’s August decision to deploy National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., and other cities to assist in crime prevention, following a May 21 shooting at the Capital Jewish Museum that killed two embassy staff members. As of December 30, 2025, homicides in Washington, D.C., are down 31% compared to 2024, according to Metropolitan Police Department data. However, a 2020 lawsuit alleged that the MPD misclassified crimes to present artificially low statistics, which was settled out of court in August without admission of liability.
Additionally, mass shootings are projected to decrease 22% this year compared to 2024, according to the Gun Violence Archive, which defines a mass shooting as four or more victims injured or killed, excluding the shooter. Among the nearly 400 mass shootings nationwide in 2025, two of the most devastating incidents occurred at churches.
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