NOAA’s first official look at winter 2026-27 favors a warmer-than-average but wetter-than-average season along the East Coast, driven by what forecasters call a very strong El Niño. For Baltimore, that combination has historically produced both the snowiest winter on record and one of the least snowy, so the outlook says more about storm tracks than about how much snow will pile up at BWI.
The National Weather Service released the U.S. Winter Outlook on Thursday, Oct. 15. It covers December 2026 through February 2027 and, as NOAA notes every year, it does not forecast seasonal snowfall totals, because snow forecasts are generally not reliable more than about a week ahead.
What does NOAA’s winter outlook say for Maryland?
Maryland is not singled out by name, but it falls inside two of the outlook’s broad zones. Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley and “much of the East.” Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the country and along the East Coast, with ABC News reporting that the wettest odds in the region tilt toward the lower mid-Atlantic.
NOAA also expects drought to improve or end in parts of the East Coast by the end of January.
“A very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S.”
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service
That shift matters for Baltimore. When the jet stream dips south and east, Gulf and Atlantic moisture is more likely to ride up the coast in the form of coastal storms. Whether those storms bring snow, sleet or a cold rain to Interstate 95 depends on how much cold air is in place when they arrive, and a warmer-leaning season makes that the key question.
Does El Niño mean more snow in Baltimore?
Sometimes, but not reliably. A WMAR-2 analysis of 33 recent winters found that Baltimore averaged about 15.6 inches of snow across all seasons, just under 2 feet in El Niño winters and closer to 30 inches in moderate-to-strong El Niño winters. The same analysis also pointed to the very strong El Niño of 1997-98, when BWI recorded barely more than an inch.
| Winter | Pattern | BWI snowfall |
|---|---|---|
| 1997-98 | Very strong El Niño | Barely over 1 inch |
| 2009-10 | El Niño | About 77 inches (record) |
| 2015-16 | Very strong El Niño | More than 30 inches, including the January 2016 blizzard |
| 2022-23 | La Niña | 0.2 inch |
| 2023-24 | El Niño | About 11.3 inches through Feb. 22, 2024 |
| 30-year normal | — | About 19.3 inches |
The spread is the story. The 2009-10 season, capped by the back-to-back February 2010 blizzards, remains Baltimore’s snowiest on record. Six years later, the January 2016 blizzard buried the region during another very strong El Niño. But 1997-98 and, to a lesser degree, 2023-24 show that an El Niño winter can also deliver storm after storm of rain when the cold air is missing.
Why a warm forecast does not rule out big storms
The outlook is a set of probabilities for the whole three-month period, not a promise for every week. A season can finish warmer than average overall and still include a few cold outbreaks, and in Baltimore it often takes only one well-timed coastal storm to push the seasonal total toward normal.
Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told ABC News that some locations may see impacts that do not match the expected El Niño pattern, which is why the agency frames its seasonal forecasts as odds rather than certainties.
What is new in winter forecasts this year?
NOAA said two changes take effect for the 2026-27 season:
- Probabilistic Precipitation Portal: Now operational, it shows low-end, expected and high-end amounts of snow, ice and rain, plus the chances of topping set thresholds.
- “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording: Select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings will carry the label to flag high-confidence events of historic severity.
For Baltimore-area residents, the portal could be most useful in the days before a coastal storm, when the difference between a few inches and a foot often hinges on a small shift in the rain-snow line.
What should Baltimore residents do now?
- Follow local forecasts, not seasonal headlines. The NWS Baltimore/Washington office issues the watches and warnings that cover the city and surrounding counties.
- Plan for ice and heavy rain, too. A wet, mild-leaning winter can mean more freezing rain and flooding events, not only snow.
- Check road conditions before winter trips. The state’s Maryland 511 service posts traffic and travel information.
- Keep an eye on energy demand. The regional grid has already been under strain this fall; our earlier report explains what Maryland’s power grid emergency means for BGE customers.
When will the forecast be updated?
NOAA updates its three-month outlook monthly, and the next update is scheduled for Nov. 19. Before winter arrives, the near-term weather is still autumn’s: see our latest look at Baltimore’s storms, wind and frost chances this weekend.
For now, the short answer to whether Baltimore will have a snowy winter is that nobody knows yet. What forecasters do expect is an active, southern storm track, and in a city where a single nor’easter can make or break a season, that alone is worth watching.
Featured image: A snow-covered Lancaster Street in Fells Point after the February 2010 blizzard. Photo: Laura Swiecicki / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.