In the event of the worst development of events in Ukraine and the victory of the Russian Federation, the German government expects 10 million additional refugees from Ukraine. This is reported by the newspaper Welt am Sonntag.
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The lack of aid in the United States is a problem. However, the German government assumes that Ukraine will be able to hold the front until the end of 2024.
“If Ukraine falls apart, the federal government assumes that about ten million people will leave the country. In this scenario, the vast majority of refugees will head to Western Europe, with Germany being one of the destination countries,” the report says.
According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 6 million people have fled Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. According to the Ministry of the Interior (BMI), there are currently 1.1 million Ukrainian citizens in Germany who have entered the country since 2022.
Expert according to the foreign policy of the opposition Christian Democratic Union of Germany, Roderich Kiesewetter considers Europe more responsible for Ukraine than ever.
According to him, states supporting Ukraine will now have to significantly increase military assistance, given the delay in assistance from the United States.
“If we do not change our strategy to support Ukraine, then the worst-case scenario is a mass exodus from Ukraine and the spread of the war to NATO countries will become much more likely. Then ten million refugees is a fairly low figure,” Kiesewetter said in an interview with Welt am Sonntag.
Migration researcher Gerald Knaus shares this estimate.
Migration researcher Gerald Knaus shares this estimate.
“If Ukraine loses the war, many more than ten million refugees could come to the EU. This is already the largest refugee movement in Europe since the 1940s.” Compared to the mass exodus in the context of the war in Syria, there is a big difference. Türkiye closed the border with Syria and built a wall. The EU will not do this in relation to Ukraine. So, if the EU does not want the number of refugees to increase, it must now help Ukraine win its defense war,” Knaus said.
