Newspaper logo  
 
 
Local Gov’t Stories, Events

08.15 RIDE FOR THE OVERRIDE

Ref. : Civic Events

Ref. : Arts & Education Events

Ref. : Public Service Notices

Travel
Books, Films, Arts & Education

09.28 Life is richer when we talk to strangers

Letters

Ref. : Letters to the editor

Health Care & Environment

09.28 Earth 'Locked Into' Hitting Temperatures Not Seen in 2 Million Years: Study

09.28 South Australia storms: entire state left without power after wild weather – live

09.28 New York City accelerates emissions efforts in face of daunting sea level rise

09.28 Lots to lose: how cities around the world are eliminating car parks

09.28 No fracking, drilling or digging: it’s the only way to save life on Earth

09.28 Greenland's receding icecap to expose top-secret US nuclear project

09.27 Germany Has the World's First Hydrogen-Powered Passenger Train [could aviation use hydrogen too?]

09.27 China tops WHO list for deadly outdoor air pollution

09.27 Can the aviation industry finally clean up its emissions?

09.27 US emissions set to miss 2025 target in Paris climate change deal, research finds

09.26 Africa's portable solar revolution is thwarting thieves

09.26 Time for Congress to Stop Hollering at CEOs and Take Action [The U.S. is the only 'advanced country' without healthcare price controls]

09.26 The Impact of Minimum Wage Changes on Infant Health

09.26 New Record Low Solar Price in Abu Dhabi – Costs Plunging Faster Than Expected [maybe Middle East wars will stop now]

09.25 Want to Slow Climate Change? Stop Having Babies

News Media Matters

09.28 Lester Holt Asks Zero Questions About Poverty, Abortion, Climate Change

Daily: FAIR Blog
The Daily Howler

US Politics, Policy & 'Culture'

09.27 The Trump Files: Donald's Creepy Poolside Parties in Florida [bunga bunga' parties like Berlusconi]

09.27 This week: Shutdown deadline looms over Congress

09.27 Murders up 10.8% in biggest percentage increase since 1971, FBI data shows

09.27 Clinton stays calm while Trump loses cool during first presidential debate [videos]

09.26 The Lying Game

09.26 Why Donald Trump Should Not Be President

09.26 The government wants more offshore fish farms, but no one is biting

Justice Matters

09.28 Wells Fargo executives forfeit millions, CEO to forgo salary amid investigation

High Crimes?

09.28 Amnesty calls off launch of Thai torture report after police warning [something sick is brewing here]

09.26 African elephant numbers plummet during 'worst decline in 25 years’

09.26 Russia accused of war crimes in Syria at UN security council session [videos]

Economics, Crony Capitalism

09.23 Wells Fargo's toxic culture reveals big banks' eight deadly sins

International

09.28 Killing People, Breaking Things, and America's Winless Wars [war profiteers rake in huge profits, but countries never “win” wars]

09.28 Syrian troops launch ground offensive against Aleppo rebels [video of devastation; will there be profit from fossil fuel we cannot use?]

09.27 Saudi Arabia cuts ministers' pay by 20%

09.27 Thousands of Saudis sign petition to end male guardianship of women

09.25 Syria conflict: UN chief 'appalled' by Aleppo escalation

09.25 The Natural Gas War Burning Under Syria

09.25 Panic sweeps Calais camp as refugees await the bulldozers [an “empathy wall” blocks acceptance of children]

We are a non-profit Internet-only newspaper publication founded in 1973. Your donation is essential to our survival.

You can also mail a check to:
Baltimore News Network, Inc.
P.O. Box 42581
Baltimore, MD 21284-2581
Google
This site Web
  Sen. Hillary Clinton: ''It'll be over by Feb. 5.''
Newspaper logo

ELECTION WATCH:

Sen. Hillary Clinton: “It’ll be over by Feb. 5.”

If the point of this compressed primary season was supposedly to give more states a say in the process, what happens to the states left out?

by Margie Burns

January may determine whether California and New York carry the nomination.
Candidates sometimes drop off-the-cuff remarks in their signing-off moments that they would not have led with.

On Dec. 30, when Hillary Clinton wrapped up with George Stephanopoulos on the ABC Television Sunday talk show "This Week," she signed off by absently summarizing the primary season: “It’ll be over by Feb. 5.”

From the transcript:

“GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: (Off-camera) If you don't win here how do you recover?

SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON: I don't think it's a question of recovery. I have a campaign that is poised and ready for the long term. We are competing everywhere through February 5th. We have staff in many states. We have built organizations in many states. You know, George, you and I went through an experience in 1992 where Bill Clinton didn't win anything until Georgia. He came in second time and time again in a much less, you know, volatile and contested environment.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: (Off-camera) Much less compressed also.

SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON: A much less compressed environment. So from my perspective, you get up every day and you get out there and you make your case and you reach as many people as possible. That's what I intend to do, so I'm in it for the long run. It's not a very long run. It'll be over by February 5th.”

Feb. 5, of course, is when the largest number of states ever will hold primaries and conventions on the same day. Some commentators call it “Super-Duper Tuesday,” confusing those of us who thought “Super Tuesday” was as ticky-tacky as you could get in characterizing an election.

For the Democrats, 22 states and Democrats living abroad will hold primaries or conventions on Feb. 5 to nominate a huge estimated 2,075 delegates to the national convention in Denver, Aug. 25-28. Another 207 delegates will be awarded in contests before Feb. 5, beginning with the Iowa caucuses on Friday, Jan. 3.

A total 2,200 delegates is huge. Still, Mrs. Clinton’s offhand remark raises questions.

The most immediate question is the most obvious: Leaving the GOP out of the equation, will the Democratic nomination necessarily be sewn up by Feb. 5? Apparently Mrs. Clinton counts on crushing in New York (281 delegates) and California (441) that day. The Democratic Party mandates proportional representation, with any candidate who receives less than 15 percent of the vote falling out. Recent state polls in CA and NY show Clinton ahead, presumably among voters unaware that she supports a health insurance program rather like Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts, which was crafted with input from the insurance industry.

Outside California and New York, two states being lost sight of in media attention to Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton still has the advantage of huge name recognition going into Feb. 5, but the two largest states are the most critical for her. January may determine whether California and New York carry the nomination.

If Feb. 5, meaning largely California and New York, do not end the nominating process for the Dems, then the question becomes, what happens in the rest of the primaries and caucuses? Another 23 states hold Democratic contests from Feb. 9 through June 3, for another 1000 delegates. Turnout varies by state, but many of these states have local and statewide elections of interest.

If, on the other hand, Feb. 5 does end the nominating process, that leaves a further question. Delegates are one thing. Electors are another. If the point of this compressed primary season was supposedly to give more states a say in the process, what happens to the states left out?

States that hold primaries or conventions after Tuesday, February 5 command a total of 125 electoral votes: Ohio (20) and Wisconsin (10), major battlegrounds in the Midwest; Washington (11) and Oregon (7) in the Pacific Northwest, Blue but not safe; Texas (34), which would never be written off if the Democratic party were party-building by registering new voters; Mississippi (6) and Louisiana (9), where Dems should be fighting especially hard after Katrina; Maine (4), and Vermont (3)—a safe bet not to go Republican, but it could readily go third party if the national party nominates Mrs. Clinton; and Pennsylvania (21) , another major battleground.

Any candidate needs most of these states to win. Electoral arithmetic aside, is enthusiastic turnout in the November general election a given for states written off before Valentine’s Day?

Anything could happen between now and November 2008. Still, a little handicapping here:

Mrs. Clinton would probably carry New York (31) and California (55) in the general election, unless she went so ‘centrist’ (corporate mouthpiece, Bush lite) that a good third-party candidate got into the race.

That still leaves the rest of the Electoral College. Setting aside the ‘safe’ states, in several states not considered safely ‘Blue’ the Democratic Party should theoretically have a good shot this year. Among those, for a total of 98 electoral votes, Clinton might not carry Michigan (17), Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Kansas (6), Missouri (11), New Mexico (5), Oklahoma (7), and the Dakotas (6). Given the Clintons’ track record of no party-building, you can add Tennessee (11) and Arkansas (6). And if a good alternative candidate arises on the progressive side, throw out Minnesota (10).

This run-down may look bad for the Dems, but it fits the historical picture from the 1990s on:

  1. Bill Clinton won the White House because of Ross Perot. This point is not fashionable among pundits who treat Clinton as a political wizard, especially in the national capital. The Washington Post flew into a hysterical paroxysm about Perot that I, personally, have never seen equaled in a newspaper, and I am from Texas, where men are men and newspapers are awful. But the Perot vote made a critical difference in several states that Clinton carried. There was never a popular, or populist, groundswell for William Jefferson Clinton, chair of the ‘centrist’ DLC.
  2. As veteran analyst Mark Shields pointed out a few years ago, the Clinton administration, during eight years in office, did little to no party building at the grassroots level.
  3. When the Clintons left the White House, they did not move back to Arkansas. They moved to New York, improving their prospects rather than party prospects.
  4. In 2000, Mrs. Clinton thus ran for Senate from New York rather than from Arkansas. New York would have elected Nita Lowey to the Senate in 2000, if Lowey had not moved aside for Clinton. Clinton might have won in Arkansas, and would at least have made a difference in other elections there in 2000.
  5. In 2000, the Democrats failed to carry either Arkansas, Clinton’s home state, or Tennessee, Gore’s home state. Had either state gone Democratic, it would have kept the 2000 election out of the courts, and Bush v. Gore would not have happened.

The foregoing leaves little hope that the Clinton bandwagon serves as much more than a stop-loss for the GOP and for the tight handful of corporate interests that have benefited from the last several elections. If Clinton is nominated, she has a good chance of losing the general election. But if she wins, they figure they can control her.


Margie Burns [link to her blog at margieburns.com] is a freelance journalist in the DC area. She can be reached at margie.burns@verizon.net.


Copyright © 2008 The Baltimore News Network. All rights reserved.

Republication or redistribution of Baltimore Chronicle content is expressly prohibited without their prior written consent.

Baltimore News Network, Inc., sponsor of this web site, is a nonprofit organization and does not make political endorsements. The opinions expressed in stories posted on this web site are the authors' own.

This story was published on January 3, 2008.

 

Public Service Ads: