Newspaper logo  
Local Stories, Events

Ref. : Civic Events

Ref. : Arts & Education Events

Ref. : Public Service Notices

Books, Films, Arts & Education

Ref. : Letters to the editor

Health Care & Environment

03.23 'Dead zone' in Gulf of Mexico will take decades to recover from farm pollution

03.23 EU in 'state of denial' over destructive impact of farming on wildlife

03.23 The ban on assisted death ignores the reality of illnesses like dementia

03.23 Lignite mining: Greece’s dirty secret - in pictures

03.21 THE BATTLE FOR PARADISE [renewable energy is obviously essential for rebuilding]

03.21 London air pollution activists 'prepared to go to prison' to force action

03.21 London air pollution activists 'prepared to go to prison' to force action

03.21 Subsidy-free renewable energy projects set to soar in UK, analysts say

03.21 'Catastrophe' as France's bird population collapses due to pesticides

03.21 A judge asks basic questions about climate change. We answer them

03.20 Can climate litigation save the world?

03.20 Climate change soon to cause mass movement, World Bank warns

03.20 Plight of Phoenix: how long can the world’s 'least sustainable' city survive?

03.20 Who owns water? The US landowners putting barbed wire across rivers

03.19 Could it be your gut keeping you awake at night?

03.19 Water shortages could affect 5bn people by 2050, UN report warns

News Media Matters

03.22 Bernie Sanders: Russia and Stormy Daniels distract us from real problem of inequality

Daily: FAIR Blog
The Daily Howler

US Politics, Policy & 'Culture'

03.23 Our manifesto to fix America's gun laws

03.22 Mick Mulvaney manipulated data to justify “tip-stealing” rule: report

03.22 Crooked Together: Two Equally Corrupt Parties Bent In Different Directions [the Sanders-Warren progressives are the standout exceptions]

03.22 'We Need Medicare for All,' Says Warren, But Until That's Achieved Her New Bill Aims to Curb Pain of For-Profit System [4:10 video]

03.21 Cambridge Analytica execs boast of role in getting Trump elected [videos]

Justice Matters

03.22 In court, Big Oil rejected climate denial

High Crimes?

03.23 Amnesty International slams Western arms sales to Saudi Arabia and allies in Yemen war

Economics, Crony Capitalism

03.20 Russian Roulette review: as Joe Biden said, 'If this is true, it's treason'

03.20 Bernie Sanders’ Economic Inequality Town Hall Draws 1.7 Million Live Viewers [1:38:49 video, studiously ignored online at WaPo, NYT, or Google News...]

03.19 No CEO should earn 1,000 times more than a regular employee

International & Futurism

03.23 Trump Picks 'Unhinged Advocate for World War III' John Bolton as New National Security Adviser

03.23 At last, good news on Brexit: Britain is heading for Norway

03.22 Interview: Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades'


03.22 The evil genius of Cambridge Analytica was to exploit those we trust most [the sociopathic modus operandi of The Trump Organization and Cambridge Analytica are suspiciously identical]

03.21 Donald Trump Jr. Pushed ‘Blatantly Illegal’ Project In India, Former Official Says — ‘Trump, Inc.’ Podcast [the closer to criminality the higher the profits]


03.21 Hands': 55 Senators Vote To Continue US-Backed Carnage in Yemen

We are a non-profit Internet-only newspaper publication founded in 1973. Your donation is essential to our survival.

You can also mail a check to:
Baltimore News Network, Inc.
P.O. Box 42581
Baltimore, MD 21284-2581
This site Web
  Sen. Hillary Clinton: ''It'll be over by Feb. 5.''
Newspaper logo


Sen. Hillary Clinton: “It’ll be over by Feb. 5.”

If the point of this compressed primary season was supposedly to give more states a say in the process, what happens to the states left out?

by Margie Burns

January may determine whether California and New York carry the nomination.
Candidates sometimes drop off-the-cuff remarks in their signing-off moments that they would not have led with.

On Dec. 30, when Hillary Clinton wrapped up with George Stephanopoulos on the ABC Television Sunday talk show "This Week," she signed off by absently summarizing the primary season: “It’ll be over by Feb. 5.”

From the transcript:

“GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: (Off-camera) If you don't win here how do you recover?

SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON: I don't think it's a question of recovery. I have a campaign that is poised and ready for the long term. We are competing everywhere through February 5th. We have staff in many states. We have built organizations in many states. You know, George, you and I went through an experience in 1992 where Bill Clinton didn't win anything until Georgia. He came in second time and time again in a much less, you know, volatile and contested environment.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: (Off-camera) Much less compressed also.

SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON: A much less compressed environment. So from my perspective, you get up every day and you get out there and you make your case and you reach as many people as possible. That's what I intend to do, so I'm in it for the long run. It's not a very long run. It'll be over by February 5th.”

Feb. 5, of course, is when the largest number of states ever will hold primaries and conventions on the same day. Some commentators call it “Super-Duper Tuesday,” confusing those of us who thought “Super Tuesday” was as ticky-tacky as you could get in characterizing an election.

For the Democrats, 22 states and Democrats living abroad will hold primaries or conventions on Feb. 5 to nominate a huge estimated 2,075 delegates to the national convention in Denver, Aug. 25-28. Another 207 delegates will be awarded in contests before Feb. 5, beginning with the Iowa caucuses on Friday, Jan. 3.

A total 2,200 delegates is huge. Still, Mrs. Clinton’s offhand remark raises questions.

The most immediate question is the most obvious: Leaving the GOP out of the equation, will the Democratic nomination necessarily be sewn up by Feb. 5? Apparently Mrs. Clinton counts on crushing in New York (281 delegates) and California (441) that day. The Democratic Party mandates proportional representation, with any candidate who receives less than 15 percent of the vote falling out. Recent state polls in CA and NY show Clinton ahead, presumably among voters unaware that she supports a health insurance program rather like Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts, which was crafted with input from the insurance industry.

Outside California and New York, two states being lost sight of in media attention to Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton still has the advantage of huge name recognition going into Feb. 5, but the two largest states are the most critical for her. January may determine whether California and New York carry the nomination.

If Feb. 5, meaning largely California and New York, do not end the nominating process for the Dems, then the question becomes, what happens in the rest of the primaries and caucuses? Another 23 states hold Democratic contests from Feb. 9 through June 3, for another 1000 delegates. Turnout varies by state, but many of these states have local and statewide elections of interest.

If, on the other hand, Feb. 5 does end the nominating process, that leaves a further question. Delegates are one thing. Electors are another. If the point of this compressed primary season was supposedly to give more states a say in the process, what happens to the states left out?

States that hold primaries or conventions after Tuesday, February 5 command a total of 125 electoral votes: Ohio (20) and Wisconsin (10), major battlegrounds in the Midwest; Washington (11) and Oregon (7) in the Pacific Northwest, Blue but not safe; Texas (34), which would never be written off if the Democratic party were party-building by registering new voters; Mississippi (6) and Louisiana (9), where Dems should be fighting especially hard after Katrina; Maine (4), and Vermont (3)—a safe bet not to go Republican, but it could readily go third party if the national party nominates Mrs. Clinton; and Pennsylvania (21) , another major battleground.

Any candidate needs most of these states to win. Electoral arithmetic aside, is enthusiastic turnout in the November general election a given for states written off before Valentine’s Day?

Anything could happen between now and November 2008. Still, a little handicapping here:

Mrs. Clinton would probably carry New York (31) and California (55) in the general election, unless she went so ‘centrist’ (corporate mouthpiece, Bush lite) that a good third-party candidate got into the race.

That still leaves the rest of the Electoral College. Setting aside the ‘safe’ states, in several states not considered safely ‘Blue’ the Democratic Party should theoretically have a good shot this year. Among those, for a total of 98 electoral votes, Clinton might not carry Michigan (17), Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Kansas (6), Missouri (11), New Mexico (5), Oklahoma (7), and the Dakotas (6). Given the Clintons’ track record of no party-building, you can add Tennessee (11) and Arkansas (6). And if a good alternative candidate arises on the progressive side, throw out Minnesota (10).

This run-down may look bad for the Dems, but it fits the historical picture from the 1990s on:

  1. Bill Clinton won the White House because of Ross Perot. This point is not fashionable among pundits who treat Clinton as a political wizard, especially in the national capital. The Washington Post flew into a hysterical paroxysm about Perot that I, personally, have never seen equaled in a newspaper, and I am from Texas, where men are men and newspapers are awful. But the Perot vote made a critical difference in several states that Clinton carried. There was never a popular, or populist, groundswell for William Jefferson Clinton, chair of the ‘centrist’ DLC.
  2. As veteran analyst Mark Shields pointed out a few years ago, the Clinton administration, during eight years in office, did little to no party building at the grassroots level.
  3. When the Clintons left the White House, they did not move back to Arkansas. They moved to New York, improving their prospects rather than party prospects.
  4. In 2000, Mrs. Clinton thus ran for Senate from New York rather than from Arkansas. New York would have elected Nita Lowey to the Senate in 2000, if Lowey had not moved aside for Clinton. Clinton might have won in Arkansas, and would at least have made a difference in other elections there in 2000.
  5. In 2000, the Democrats failed to carry either Arkansas, Clinton’s home state, or Tennessee, Gore’s home state. Had either state gone Democratic, it would have kept the 2000 election out of the courts, and Bush v. Gore would not have happened.

The foregoing leaves little hope that the Clinton bandwagon serves as much more than a stop-loss for the GOP and for the tight handful of corporate interests that have benefited from the last several elections. If Clinton is nominated, she has a good chance of losing the general election. But if she wins, they figure they can control her.

Margie Burns [link to her blog at] is a freelance journalist in the DC area. She can be reached at

Copyright © 2008 The Baltimore News Network. All rights reserved.

Republication or redistribution of Baltimore Chronicle content is expressly prohibited without their prior written consent.

Baltimore News Network, Inc., sponsor of this web site, is a nonprofit organization and does not make political endorsements. The opinions expressed in stories posted on this web site are the authors' own.

This story was published on January 3, 2008.


Public Service Ads: