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Health Care & Environment
05.23 Environmentalists Are Ignoring the Elephant In the Room: U.S. Military Is the World’s Largest Polluter [Since Trump had the EPA's records on global warming and pollution destroyed—and thus reporting world-wide has nearly stopped, let's pick on the US Military]
05.23 White House proposes slashing funds to clean up toxic sites despite EPA's pleas [far worse than just being stupid]
05.20 Global Study Shows Americans Dying from Preventable Causes at Shocking Rates [“What a country!” —Yakov Smirnoff]
05.20 China claims breakthrough in mining 'flammable ice' [might greater release of methane to our atmosphere become a larger problem?]
News Media Matters
US Politics, Policy & 'Culture'
05.23 Trump's budget: major slashes to social programs – but $1.6bn for the wall [disgusting that this was proposed at all]
05.21 The small Texas city fighting to remain a ‘safe haven’ for immigrants [morally right & courageous]
Economics, Crony Capitalism
05.20 The Malta Files: How the smallest EU country became a haven for global tax avoidance [why can't we play nice together?]
05.23 Could an Islamic reformation prevent violent radicalisation in Egypt? [denied vital lives enmasse, angry youth rebel in the only way that has any effect]
05.23 Facebook flooded with 'sextortion' and revenge porn, files reveal [wake-up people, don't let kids 'play' here]
05.22 Big game hunter is crushed to death when an elephant he was hunting in Zimbabwe is shot and falls on top of him [a fitting death to an elephant killer]
05.21 UK needs more immigrants to 'avoid Brexit catastrophe' [who benefits from bad "conservative" policy?]
05.21 THE LIGHTS ARE GOING OUT IN THE MIDDLE EAST [we suggest enticing a solar panel and battery manufacturers to locate in your countries to diversify economies and create jobs. use solar to empower yourselves...]
05.21 Budget analysis shows some Australian women hit with effective marginal tax rates of 100% ["conservatives" are cruel to the poor and desperate everywhere, to protect themselves from higher taxes]
05.21 Venezuela: 50th day of protests brings central Caracas to a standstill [who does interventions for countries? could the UN help more?]
05.21 Brexit and the coming food crisis: ‘If you can’t feed a country, you haven’t got a country’ [fear-based nationalism will become a costly problem]
Sen. Hillary Clinton: “It’ll be over by Feb. 5.”
If the point of this compressed primary season was supposedly to give more states a say in the process, what happens to the states left out?
January may determine whether California and New York carry the nomination.Candidates sometimes drop off-the-cuff remarks in their signing-off moments that they would not have led with.
On Dec. 30, when Hillary Clinton wrapped up with George Stephanopoulos on the ABC Television Sunday talk show "This Week," she signed off by absently summarizing the primary season: “It’ll be over by Feb. 5.”
From the transcript:
For the Democrats, 22 states and Democrats living abroad will hold primaries or conventions on Feb. 5 to nominate a huge estimated 2,075 delegates to the national convention in Denver, Aug. 25-28. Another 207 delegates will be awarded in contests before Feb. 5, beginning with the Iowa caucuses on Friday, Jan. 3.
A total 2,200 delegates is huge. Still, Mrs. Clinton’s offhand remark raises questions.
The most immediate question is the most obvious: Leaving the GOP out of the equation, will the Democratic nomination necessarily be sewn up by Feb. 5? Apparently Mrs. Clinton counts on crushing in New York (281 delegates) and California (441) that day. The Democratic Party mandates proportional representation, with any candidate who receives less than 15 percent of the vote falling out. Recent state polls in CA and NY show Clinton ahead, presumably among voters unaware that she supports a health insurance program rather like Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts, which was crafted with input from the insurance industry.
Outside California and New York, two states being lost sight of in media attention to Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton still has the advantage of huge name recognition going into Feb. 5, but the two largest states are the most critical for her. January may determine whether California and New York carry the nomination.
If Feb. 5, meaning largely California and New York, do not end the nominating process for the Dems, then the question becomes, what happens in the rest of the primaries and caucuses? Another 23 states hold Democratic contests from Feb. 9 through June 3, for another 1000 delegates. Turnout varies by state, but many of these states have local and statewide elections of interest.
If, on the other hand, Feb. 5 does end the nominating process, that leaves a further question. Delegates are one thing. Electors are another. If the point of this compressed primary season was supposedly to give more states a say in the process, what happens to the states left out?
States that hold primaries or conventions after Tuesday, February 5 command a total of 125 electoral votes: Ohio (20) and Wisconsin (10), major battlegrounds in the Midwest; Washington (11) and Oregon (7) in the Pacific Northwest, Blue but not safe; Texas (34), which would never be written off if the Democratic party were party-building by registering new voters; Mississippi (6) and Louisiana (9), where Dems should be fighting especially hard after Katrina; Maine (4), and Vermont (3)—a safe bet not to go Republican, but it could readily go third party if the national party nominates Mrs. Clinton; and Pennsylvania (21) , another major battleground.
Any candidate needs most of these states to win. Electoral arithmetic aside, is enthusiastic turnout in the November general election a given for states written off before Valentine’s Day?
Anything could happen between now and November 2008. Still, a little handicapping here:
Mrs. Clinton would probably carry New York (31) and California (55) in the general election, unless she went so ‘centrist’ (corporate mouthpiece, Bush lite) that a good third-party candidate got into the race.
That still leaves the rest of the Electoral College. Setting aside the ‘safe’ states, in several states not considered safely ‘Blue’ the Democratic Party should theoretically have a good shot this year. Among those, for a total of 98 electoral votes, Clinton might not carry Michigan (17), Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Kansas (6), Missouri (11), New Mexico (5), Oklahoma (7), and the Dakotas (6). Given the Clintons’ track record of no party-building, you can add Tennessee (11) and Arkansas (6). And if a good alternative candidate arises on the progressive side, throw out Minnesota (10).
This run-down may look bad for the Dems, but it fits the historical picture from the 1990s on:
The foregoing leaves little hope that the Clinton bandwagon serves as much more than a stop-loss for the GOP and for the tight handful of corporate interests that have benefited from the last several elections. If Clinton is nominated, she has a good chance of losing the general election. But if she wins, they figure they can control her.
Margie Burns [link to her blog at margieburns.com] is a freelance journalist in the DC area. She can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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This story was published on January 3, 2008.