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08.15 Monsanto sold banned chemicals for years despite known health risks, archives reveal [immoral capitalism]
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08.18 Climate change will likely wreck their livelihoods – but they still don't buy the science [a willfully ignorant people? or a public conned by oil-industry subsidized news media distortions?]
US Politics, Policy & 'Culture'
08.18 GOP Senator Drowned Out By Cheers for 'Single Payer' at Town Hall [might our 'representatives' understand better if we took their free healthcare away?]
08.18 The United States was never immune to fascism. Not then, not now [2:54 video; “Stupid is as stupid does.” –Forrest Gump]
08.18 Trump's evangelical panel remains intact as others disband. Who are his religious cheerleaders? [“Stupid is as stupid does.” –Forrest Gump]
08.17 Stranding CEOs Too Slow To Quit, Trump Disbands His Own Business Councils [could a wider boycott accomplish resignations or positive change?]
08.16 Mark Ruffalo, Michael Moore Lead NYC Protest Against 'Absolutely Racist' Trump [short video]
08.16 Companies Linked To Mike Pence Seek An Upper Hand In Infrastructure Policy [our Public Infrastructure is at risk of being transformed into Private Infrastructure with tolls ad infinitum]
08.16 Indiana prosecutors want to incarcerate the opioid crisis away [“Stupid is as stupid does.” –Forrest Gump]
08.18 Buses in Seoul install 'comfort women' statues to honour former sex slaves [immoral crimes are hard to forget]
Economics, Crony Capitalism
08.15 Why Are Drug Prices So High? These Politicians Might Have The Answer [especially since the Citizens United Supreme Court ruling, BIG money corrupts & controls U.S. government to the public’s detriment]
International & Futurism
08.17 Investment Bank Report Predicts the Cost of Electric Vehicles Will Match Regular Cars by 2018 [pressure is building for electric utilities to become 100% renewable or we'll die]
Sen. Hillary Clinton: “It’ll be over by Feb. 5.”
If the point of this compressed primary season was supposedly to give more states a say in the process, what happens to the states left out?
January may determine whether California and New York carry the nomination.Candidates sometimes drop off-the-cuff remarks in their signing-off moments that they would not have led with.
On Dec. 30, when Hillary Clinton wrapped up with George Stephanopoulos on the ABC Television Sunday talk show "This Week," she signed off by absently summarizing the primary season: “It’ll be over by Feb. 5.”
From the transcript:
For the Democrats, 22 states and Democrats living abroad will hold primaries or conventions on Feb. 5 to nominate a huge estimated 2,075 delegates to the national convention in Denver, Aug. 25-28. Another 207 delegates will be awarded in contests before Feb. 5, beginning with the Iowa caucuses on Friday, Jan. 3.
A total 2,200 delegates is huge. Still, Mrs. Clinton’s offhand remark raises questions.
The most immediate question is the most obvious: Leaving the GOP out of the equation, will the Democratic nomination necessarily be sewn up by Feb. 5? Apparently Mrs. Clinton counts on crushing in New York (281 delegates) and California (441) that day. The Democratic Party mandates proportional representation, with any candidate who receives less than 15 percent of the vote falling out. Recent state polls in CA and NY show Clinton ahead, presumably among voters unaware that she supports a health insurance program rather like Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts, which was crafted with input from the insurance industry.
Outside California and New York, two states being lost sight of in media attention to Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton still has the advantage of huge name recognition going into Feb. 5, but the two largest states are the most critical for her. January may determine whether California and New York carry the nomination.
If Feb. 5, meaning largely California and New York, do not end the nominating process for the Dems, then the question becomes, what happens in the rest of the primaries and caucuses? Another 23 states hold Democratic contests from Feb. 9 through June 3, for another 1000 delegates. Turnout varies by state, but many of these states have local and statewide elections of interest.
If, on the other hand, Feb. 5 does end the nominating process, that leaves a further question. Delegates are one thing. Electors are another. If the point of this compressed primary season was supposedly to give more states a say in the process, what happens to the states left out?
States that hold primaries or conventions after Tuesday, February 5 command a total of 125 electoral votes: Ohio (20) and Wisconsin (10), major battlegrounds in the Midwest; Washington (11) and Oregon (7) in the Pacific Northwest, Blue but not safe; Texas (34), which would never be written off if the Democratic party were party-building by registering new voters; Mississippi (6) and Louisiana (9), where Dems should be fighting especially hard after Katrina; Maine (4), and Vermont (3)—a safe bet not to go Republican, but it could readily go third party if the national party nominates Mrs. Clinton; and Pennsylvania (21) , another major battleground.
Any candidate needs most of these states to win. Electoral arithmetic aside, is enthusiastic turnout in the November general election a given for states written off before Valentine’s Day?
Anything could happen between now and November 2008. Still, a little handicapping here:
Mrs. Clinton would probably carry New York (31) and California (55) in the general election, unless she went so ‘centrist’ (corporate mouthpiece, Bush lite) that a good third-party candidate got into the race.
That still leaves the rest of the Electoral College. Setting aside the ‘safe’ states, in several states not considered safely ‘Blue’ the Democratic Party should theoretically have a good shot this year. Among those, for a total of 98 electoral votes, Clinton might not carry Michigan (17), Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Kansas (6), Missouri (11), New Mexico (5), Oklahoma (7), and the Dakotas (6). Given the Clintons’ track record of no party-building, you can add Tennessee (11) and Arkansas (6). And if a good alternative candidate arises on the progressive side, throw out Minnesota (10).
This run-down may look bad for the Dems, but it fits the historical picture from the 1990s on:
The foregoing leaves little hope that the Clinton bandwagon serves as much more than a stop-loss for the GOP and for the tight handful of corporate interests that have benefited from the last several elections. If Clinton is nominated, she has a good chance of losing the general election. But if she wins, they figure they can control her.
Margie Burns [link to her blog at margieburns.com] is a freelance journalist in the DC area. She can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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This story was published on January 3, 2008.