• 24/05/2024 21:32

Is Iran preparing a strike against Israel? Why is the essence of the conflict so that Tehran is tempted to attack

Since the beginning of the war, the world has been in the isolated Iranian species to Israel's attack on the consulate in Damascus (Syria ). Over the course of this hour, it was repeatedly reported that Tehran was ready to attack the Axis-Axis, and based on the remaining data, the attack would be in the coming years.

More details about the causes of the conflict, Iranian threats and what to write about this world’s snakes, – In the text of RBC-Ukrainian.

at the pirototovsky mother vicoristal: Publikakatsya The Wall Street Journal, CBS News, El Pais, Politico, Times of ISRAEL, STORD YOURSELF, Izraalyx Osіb, analika column Ukrainian Institute of Maybut Ilya Kusi for RBC-Ukraine.

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  • Israel's first death? The essence of the new conflict and possible reasons
  • Exchange of threats. Iran strikes, Israel is ready for war
  • An attack lasting 24-48 years? Why is there no residual decision
  • The worst-case scenario is that Iran decides to attack Israel

The first death for Israel? The essence of the new conflict and possible causes

Israeli forces launched a missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on the 1st quarter. At least seven people died, including the commander of the Al-Quds Force (the expeditionary wing of the Islamic Revolution War Corps) General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and General Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.

Regional None of the media called Israel. Officially, without taking or saying that he was not behind the blow. It is certain that the target near the Syrian capital was attacked by F-35 aircraft at the same time that the Iranians were present. This attack became an important precedent. Prior to this, the Israeli army repeatedly defeated the targets of Iranian and pro-Iranian forces in Syria, but never hit diplomatic alerts.

“From the point of view of international law, there is a gross violation of the immunity of diplomatic missions that respect the territory of this country and the interests they represent,” an analyst of the Ukrainian Institute wrote in a column for RBC-Ukraine that of the future Illiya Kusa.

Coming from the status of the lost, Iran has recognized the most serious losses since the liquidation of General Qassem Soleimani in 2020. They reacted to the blow out of anxiety. Criticism came from UN Secretary General António Guterres, China, Saudi Arabia and other countries that are unfriendly to Israel.

It is significant that Iran itself has more than once destroyed the lack of clarity of diplomatic objects. The last episode – in 2016, the population in Tehran finally reached the Saudi Arabian Embassy. However, Iran has never attacked embassies with drones or missiles. In other words, the Israeli attack is significant enough to possibly open a new division in the conflict at the Close Gathering.

Iranian General Mohammad Reza Zahedi (Fars Media Corporation)

In addition, it comes on top of the growing international pressure due to the war in the Gaza Strip. The Defense Army (IDF) is criticized not only by its enemies, but by its strategic ally, especially the United States. For example, Washington did not veto the resolution for the sake of the safety of the UN about the fire. In response, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled the trip of the military delegation. Therefore, the blow to the Iranian consulate seems to be another signal to the world that Israel intends to provide food in accordance with its needs.

Escalation with Iran is expected in the wake of the war in Gazi, as it is trivaya It's been over six months now. Unfazed by the support of Hamas terrorists and anti-Israel rhetoric, in practice Tehran has not ventured into a direct military conflict, although it has activated proxy forces – the Houthis in Yemen and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon sku Hezbollah.

According to Kusi, there could be a number of reasons for the missile strike on the diplomatic front. It is possible that Israel is trying to involve Iran in the direct military conflict in order to raise the stakes and the US will get involved; destroy the truce that has reached the United States and pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq; show the progress of the war with Iran on the ongoing campaign that has dragged on in Gaza.

Exchange of threats. Iran strikes, Israel is ready for war

The attack prompted an angry reaction from high Iranian officials, who immediately denounced the “harsh reaction.”

“We hate to talk about those who stink of evil and go to such lengths,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said.

Iranian President Abraham Raisi called the attack on the consulate in Damascus ” an inhuman, aggressive and odious act.” And the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, stated that Israel attacked with American-made aircraft and missiles, and the United States also cannot bear the responsibility.

According to Bloomberg, Tehran sent a letter to Washington, so that “the Americans were killed,” and apparently the United States asked not to attack their targets. The American side did not comment officially. Israel has since not informed its partner about the airstrike.

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Photo: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatens Israel with a blow at the Concord (Getty Images)

These days, the Israeli minister of foreign affairs, Israel Katz, warned his country about Iranian attacks.

“As Iran attacks from its territory, Israel in Iran reacts and attacks,” he wrote. in your microbloz X.

And US President Joe Biden began to sing to Netanyahu at the incomparable support. In his words, American partners are doing everything possible to protect Israel. Previously, the Iranian mission to the UN issued an ultimatum. It is imperative that the Security Council condemn the attack on the consulate, otherwise Tehran will stagnate. IDF Speaker Daniel Hagari, having said that the Defense Army is ready before an attack, gradually assesses the situation right now, as needed.

As The Times of Israel writes, the head of the Iranian Ministry of Defense has conveyed a new message to Washington. Does anyone know about those that the response to the attack on the consulate will be controlled and not escalation. Perhaps we are not talking about a direct attack, but about attacks by pro-Iranian proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

British Foreign Affairs Minister David Cameron responded publicly to the Iranian threat. How can he call on his Iranian colleague Abdollahian to avoid further escalation at the Close Gathering.

An attack lasting 24-48 years? Why there is no residual solution

The Wall Street Journal's report on the Dzherel informs about the preparation of a direct attack itself. According to this data, Iran is preparing to attack Israel over the next 24-48 years on targets in the present and former parts of Israel.

In this case, the leader of the Iranian regime, close to the leaders of the Iranian regime, seems to have no residual decision regarding attack plans. How about those who attack – on Friday and Saturday.

“Plans are under review by the Supreme Leader, and he still depends on the political leader,” – quotes the leader of the Ayatoli Khamenei.

Previously, US officials feared an imminent attack on Israeli or American forces at the Close Gathering. Now intelligence has concluded that Tehran is attacking Israeli territory, and not the interests of Washington and Jerusalem in other parts of the region, writes WSJ.

Uchora American Embassy in Israel advised its citizens not to deprive the central regions of the country.

“Due to the guarding of senior US officials and members of their families, until further notice, it is forbidden to enter the borders of Greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya and Yehuda), Jerusalem and Beer Shevi,” the representative said. nickname to the US order.

< p dir="ltr">The Pentagon confirmed that the head of the US Central Command, Mike Erik Kurila, was responsible for the operation at the Close Convergence, which destroyed Israel. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant, confirming “the encouragement to face the growing threats on Iran's side.” In his words, the Israeli side can rely on the United States to protect against Iranian attacks.

In the same way, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu detained Tehran.

“If we had not been given harm, we would have suffered harm. We “We are ready to satisfy all the needs of the power of Israel, both in defense and in the offensive,” he said, speaking to the military at the airbase in the Far East.

Politico also writes about the preparation of a large-scale strike. This means that Iran is adjusting its plans and thus strengthening US signals so that a possible escalation does not disturb Washington's response. So far, two options are visible – a direct attack or from the side of the Lebanese Hezbollah. A senior Pentagon intelligence officer and a CIA officer with Mick Mulroy believe that the success of the strike will mean that it escalates into a wider conflict.

The worst-case scenario and whether Iran dares to attack Israel

This time CBS News means that Israel is preparing for the worst-case scenario. Which, in the opinion of American officials, may soon become a reality.

Two spevrozmovniks reported that a major attack would begin on Friday, the 12th of April. It is possible that there will be more than 100 attack drones and dozens of missiles. The initial targets will be military installations on Israeli territory. The American side appreciates that the IDF will find it difficult to defeat an attack of this magnitude.

Iran has not said publicly that given the prospect of a missile attack on its consulate in Syria, it is unclear how far its leaders will go. The option of a direct attack threatens that the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip will escalate into a wider regional conflict.

Security expert and extensive intelligence officer of the Israeli intelligence service “Mossad” Sima Shine notes that the most important issues over the next decade are immediately flaring up. Behind these words, a direct strike on Israel could include a combined attack, similar to the one Iranian forces carried out against the Saudi Aramco nafta facility in 2019.

“They will try to attack the reserve ohni or any military object. Ale food for harm. If there will be a lot of killed and injured, I think this can lead to a great escalation,” she said and added that in fact, both sides do not want a conflict.

< p dir="ltr">El Pais writes: there are signs that Iran is really afraid of the “stunning” payment from Biden and Netanyahu. Of course, there is a strong potential for an attack, although it appears that one of the allies, the Russian Federation, is seeking to intimidate Tehran. Earlier, the press secretary of the Russian President, Dmitro Peskov, called out to maximum streaming.

“Iran's missile potential is significant. Its missiles reached Iraq and Syria. They can reach Israel,” says Luciano Zaccara, professor The Center monitors the Persian inlet at the University of Qatar.

Different nutrition – which indicates such a blow to Iranian interests.

“It is important to attack Israel directly. Tehran knows that it can achieve this, and the message to Israel and the United States will be significant,” he added.

Verbal superchka of ministers of foreign affairs and statement B Benjamin Netanyahu about preparedness Before the war, in the Gaza Strip, the expert calls the war on streaming between countries that have been at war for a long time. It looks like there are close to 40 incidents when Israel conducts operations on Iranian territory. This includes the liquidation of nuclear scientists from Tehran and the father of the Iranian nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, at the end of 2020.

At the same time, it is obvious that the potential for flow into Iran is less, below in Israel.< /p>

“Technologically, there are no such excuses. I don’t think that they are going to launch missiles directly from their territories, since the Israeli response will come there. Israel has made this clear. iti,” he said Zaccara.

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